Sunday, July 13, 2008

The Anti - don't fear the ripper, be the ripper!




Here are add'l examples of Antis. Of course there are slight variations to this pattern as they occur throughout the trading day but I have pointed out some key elements. An Anti, like a divergence, often ends a swing. So to practice spotting an Anti, pick a timeframe and look at the top or bottom of swings on that timeframe and see which pattern may have ended that swing. The best Antis play-out when no one expects them!


Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Some concepts for new traders to think about



note that this is text-book structure and very straightforward. the hard part is that this type of structure, while 'normal', does not set-up so cleanly all the time. Tuesdays and Wednesdays are particularly 'trendy' in the afternoon session.

Interaction of Taylor and Market Profile for newbies

In a nutshell:
One core 'indicator' in Market Profile is the 30-min buying or selling tail.
This closely relates to Taylors core indicator -- the high or low 'violation' -- note that a high or low violation creates a TAIL on a daily chart instead of the MP 30-min chart -- but its the exact same 'concept' at work.

Be it a Taylor excess high/low or a market profile excess high/low, both are good tip-offs that mark the end of one swing and the beginning of a new 'auction' in the other direction -- which may last a day or may last multiple days.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Hi-Low Bars


Inputs: HiColor(darkgreen), LoColor(red);

Variables: DHigh(0), DLow(0);

If Date <> Date[1] then begin //High and low of 1st bar of the day are captured
DHigh = High;
DLow = Low;
Value1 = Text_New(Date, Time, High, NumToStr(High, 2)); //Text with high and low are placed above
Value2 = Text_New(Date, Time, Low, NumToStr(Low, 2)); //and below, respectively, the 1st bar of each day
Text_SetStyle(Value1, 2, 1);
Text_SetColor(Value1, HiColor);
Text_SetStyle(Value2, 2, 0);
Text_SetColor(Value2, LoColor);
end
else begin //Subsequent bars' highs and lows are captured if they exceed
If High > DHigh and Value1 >= 1 then begin //the highs and lows of the 1st bar of the day
DHigh = High;
Text_SetLocation(Value1, Date, Time, High); //If there are new highs or lows that day, then the text objects for that
Text_SetString(Value1, NumToStr(High, 2)); //day are moved, and changed to read the new high and low
end;
If Low < DLow and Value2 >= 1 then begin
DLow = Low;
Text_SetLocation(Value2, Date, Time, Low);
Text_SetString(Value2, NumToStr(Low, 2));
end;
end;

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Don't Make Big Bets

"Back in 1982, while I was within the process of training to become a stock broker, I was on the floor of the AMEX where I met an options specialist. I had been trading options since 1974. So, to meet an option's specialist to me was like meeting a rock star. Needless to say, I was full of questions and as one question lead to the next, the exchange closed trading for the day at which point I was invited to join my new mentor for a beer.

There are two very distinctive things I remember from that encounter. The 1st was the reply he gave me when I asked how he made his money. With beer in hand, he said "I never make big bets." I lean a little one way, as he tilted to the left, or I lean a little the other way as he tilted to the right. He repeated this swaying until his beer was gone.

After ordering another round, he turned toward me and said, "I'm going to give you the best piece of advice anybody will ever give you. I want you to take a $100,000 paper option account and try to lose all of the money." I started to laugh. He did not. He then said, looking me straight in the eyes, "You will not be able to do it." He said being a good trader is not about making money. Making money is about being a good trader. And being a good trader is about having the right rules to make a decision and then following those rules. So when you try to lose money, you are just as likely to fail as you are when you try to make money. The difference being in this exercise is to separate the two motivations.

Then he started to laugh and concluded his thought trend by saying, "When you finally
have figured out how to lose consistently, and your paper portfolio is gone, you are now ready to trade. Simply flip the rules around and you'll have your money making trading system. And always remember one thing - that there are two sides to every trade. You just have to learn on which side to lean."