Saturday, July 18, 2009

RGR 3/10 Osc

[LegacyColorValue = true];
Inputs: Price(Close), Avg1(3), Avg2(10), Avg3(16), StdDsp(1), UpColor( DarkGreen), DnColor( DarkRed), ZeroColor( Red ); IF Currentbar>30 Then Begin IF StdDsp=1 Then Value1=Average(Price,Avg1)-Average(Price,Avg2); IF StdDsp<>1 Then Value1=Average((Price-(Average(Price,3)[3])), 2);
Value11 = value1;
Value2=Average(Value1,Avg3);
Plot1(Value1,"3/10Line"); Plot2(Value2,"16Line"); Plot3(0,"ZeroLine", DarkGray ); plot4(Value11,"3/10Line_2", DarkGray); { Color criteria }
if Value1 >= 0 then SetPlotColor(1,UpColor);if Value1 <= 0 then SetPlotColor(1,DnColor);
End;

Friday, July 17, 2009

When a 'joey', is not JUST a 'joey' - Why HOMEWORK is good!



1) Daily downtrend is undergoing retracement.
2) After 3-4 pushes, momentum slows and price coils at Fib retracement, which also happens to be monthly High Volume Node and can see pocket on daily chart.
3) 240m and below hit low-adx zone during this 'balancing'.
4) If you want to read into MP shapes, Monthly 'P' profile indicates just short covering.

get ready....

5) 7/13/08 sneaky lunchtime move. 11:30am 5m chart breaks to downside after clearing some stops above.
6) 15m gets momo after 240m breakdown zone!
7) Is the 5/15 setup good for retest only?? NOT IN THIS CASE
8)...it's good for daily timeframe move with r/r around 100!!

any future value??...sure...watch to see if daily bear flag sets up some follow through ;)

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

comparison of S&P 500 vs some Fixed-Income ETF's



I picked the well-known Lehman Aggregate Index as starting point. Then added the two primary ETFs with same duration as the Aggregate Index (4 year durations) so that apples-to-apples comparison.

The Aggregate Index ETF is: AGG
The Pure-Treasury 4-Year ETF is: IEI
The I-G Corporate 4-Year ETF is: CIU

(note all of the above ETF's, including the S&P 500, add back dividends paid to create Total Return charts)

S&P Futures: High to Low Days vs Low to High Days. Frequency Count By Month