Friday, July 25, 2008

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Dalton Webinar (Text-Book Market Profile)

This is from a few months back (June S&P contract)-- but a template of a highly recurring z-day pattern.

Friday, July 18, 2008

SPX Cash Wave Count

SP Cash Chart - Short term Potential 5 wave completion





Daily chart of the S&P500 above - Shows potential 5 wave completion. If that holds can see retracement to the 38.2% to 50% of the entire move which ties in to roughly 1340/1390 right back into that previous value area.


Alavi

Labels and You (and the blog)

There was mention of dif blogs/categories/etc this morning.

When you're writing a post, you'll have a space at the bottom of the form marked "Labels for this post." Enter whatever labels you like, separating them with commas.

I've edited the labels for a couple of past posts to get us started, but essentially, label the posts with your name, and the category it goes in. For example, I changed the label for a recent post to "Jim, Indicators" because JJ posted it, and it's an indicator.

You'll see a new section on the right side of page that has the labels listed, so if you want to see all Indicator posts, just click on that label and it will filter them out.

Please label ALL your posts with your name (so say i want to see all of Cleon's posts I can just click his name) and the category it belongs in.

Intermediate labeling: Posts can go to several categories, for exajavascript:void(0)mple a daily chartwork type post might belong in "SRS, Chartwork, Market Profile"

Tip: Make new labels at will, but be aware that these are supposed to be categories... so getting too specific isn't great... remember that if you want to search for something specific, you can just use the search box on upper left corner of the page.

example: "Indicators" is a good label, but "Crazy indicator that uses ticks ema's colors and crazy things indicator" isn't!

Also, try and see if there is an existing category the post belongs in before making a new one.

PS: i've gone through and re-labeled a handful of posts to get us started, if you don't like the names i picked... just let me know or you can change them.

Short Skirt

Here's a question I asked in OF and Linda's answer.
Enjoy.
Ygol

---------------------------
Question
---------------------------
1 ) Is this a valid short skirt buy?
2 ) Where would be an entering point?



And is this one valid too?



---------------------------
Answer
---------------------------

yes - that is textbook short skirt on the dax that you captured!
basically a bull flag on short tiem frame,osc makes new hgihs,pushed through keltner channelse.
greatest oddds are when you are making hgiher highs or upside breakout from sideways line in otherwords, if narrow trading range day or consolidation, careful that it is not just a spike test of upper end of range.

Where do you enter:I like to enter about 2/3s of the way between the keltner and the moving average in other words,it may not fall back to the moving avarege - might fall short usually, I work a bid so I can buy it as the price is coming down.you can put your initial stop just above that lower keltner thent this is just a scalp trade so ideal is to exit as the price is moving hgiher - then sell on offer goal is to lock in clean scalp in the least amount of time!

The secod chart was not a failed short skirt because it did get its objectivei which was a higher high
SO when we tested this stuff we took
1) had to push outside the keltners,
2) bought retrace either partial or all the way to moving average..... you got higher frequency of trades if you did not have to wait fo t the EMA.
and then - exit on test of highs the only thing questionable about that second example was that it really did not have a strong push through the keltner channels
Not - your first example how you had that strong close outside the keltners...

ygol [08:30:17]> what where the results?

linda1 [08:31:22]> The test results show that it was profitable strategy whether you used, 20,25, 35, 45 period EMA also, did not matter if you use 2, 2.5 or 3 etc for Keltner channels had win/loss ratio of aroud 66% using no filters.....

ygol [08:32:08]> do we see it often (this setup)?

On Z days the system has a drawdown, cuz the tests tend to be spikey and set up false bull and bear flags at upper and lower end of the range in the morning session
On a trend day - you can get 8 - 10 winners in a row
We used to see it more often 8 years ago then we do now used to get 8 - 11 trades a day on a mechnical system now get less the main reason being the markets are more "urgent" bandwidth faster, electornic platforms and smarter market participants...

so now, once a market breaks out, it is more of a momentum dogpileb with fewewr pauses along the way whereas before you would get 4-5 short skirts, now might get one and you have to be careful if it is coming very late in the move

ygol [08:35:20]> thank you again Linda.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

EWT




edit: According to Murphy, 'One of the most important rules to remember is that a correction can never take place in five waves...'

Ticks To Min Indicator, JJ

This indicator for tick charts displays the average time between bars for the last x bars (default is 5).

//jh_time_2_min
input: numbars(5);
vars: lasttime(0), firsttime(0), timediff(0), timetext(0);

once timetext = Text_New(0,0, 0, NumToStr(timediff, 1));
timediff = (TimeToMinutes(Time[1]) - TimeToMinutes(Time[numbars + 1]))/numbars;Text_SetString(timetext, NumToStr(timediff, 1)+ " min");
value1 = Text_Float(timetext, 0, 2);

Sunday, July 13, 2008

The Anti - don't fear the ripper, be the ripper!




Here are add'l examples of Antis. Of course there are slight variations to this pattern as they occur throughout the trading day but I have pointed out some key elements. An Anti, like a divergence, often ends a swing. So to practice spotting an Anti, pick a timeframe and look at the top or bottom of swings on that timeframe and see which pattern may have ended that swing. The best Antis play-out when no one expects them!


Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Some concepts for new traders to think about



note that this is text-book structure and very straightforward. the hard part is that this type of structure, while 'normal', does not set-up so cleanly all the time. Tuesdays and Wednesdays are particularly 'trendy' in the afternoon session.

Interaction of Taylor and Market Profile for newbies

In a nutshell:
One core 'indicator' in Market Profile is the 30-min buying or selling tail.
This closely relates to Taylors core indicator -- the high or low 'violation' -- note that a high or low violation creates a TAIL on a daily chart instead of the MP 30-min chart -- but its the exact same 'concept' at work.

Be it a Taylor excess high/low or a market profile excess high/low, both are good tip-offs that mark the end of one swing and the beginning of a new 'auction' in the other direction -- which may last a day or may last multiple days.