SP - MP update

Chart1: The SP had a false breakout above the 1370.75 balance high, testing the resistance area (see Freddy's levels) before closing back in the middle of the bracket. The lower end of this range is 1325 – 1322.75.




Chart2: Update showing the longer term profile since the breakout from the 7-Day bracket on Jan 15. It looks like the market will need to develop this range more before breaking out.

SRS

Levels by Freddy

Here are the charts with levels I was watching on daily for short setup and intraday for both long and short swing trades - the daily timeframe is obviously the most important timeframe so the short play was favoured once the tail was apparent and the 80 level was rejected.

Taylor

Bonds

MP structure heading in to FOMC.
SRS

SP 4-Day Balance / Breakout Mode

The SP has formed a 4-day balance ahead of the FOMC decision. Tuesday’s NR7 was within the balance that had already begun to form.
SRS

SP 3-Day Balance

The SP has formed a 3-day balance going into the 2-day Fed meeting.
SRS

wedge: follow-up

wedge

ES - 5 Day Profile

 
SP trying to come into short term balance after establishing an unfair low and an unfair high.
SRS

Great Elliott interpretation by Raj.....

Nice Elliott interpretation by Raj......making me wonder what's next though. I can make a case for it either being the start of another move up (ties in with Taylor Buy setup), or in a "b" of an a/b/c back down towards the 1290 area (apex of b/o) ........
Rolcol

Coding error

This weekend, I was comparing my volume chart to Roland's and discovered I made an error and an omission. I omitted the case when the open = close (gray vol bar). Also, I discovered that the intra-day use of the EasyLanguage word 'volume' refers to 'up-volume' only. To get what we want, we need to use the ES word 'ticks'. I've changed my code and made a new picture of the second example of Roland's divergence.

I'm sorry for the error. Funny, I was using it Friday and made money....

Jim

Inputs: AverageLength(10);

vars: color(Green),sdvol(10), avgVol(0);
sdvol = standarddev(Ticks, AverageLength,2);

avgVol = average(Ticks, averagelength);Plot1(Ticks, "Vol");Plot2(avgVol, "Avg");
color = LightGray;
if open data1 > close data1 then

begin

if Ticks > Ticks[1] then color = Red

else color = darkred;

end;
if open data1 <>

begin if Ticks > Ticks[1] then color = Green

else color = DarkGreen;

end;

SetPlotColor(1,color);

SetPlotWidth(1,1);

if Ticks > avgVol then SetPlotWidth(1,2);

if Ticks > avgVol + sdVol then SetPlotWidth(1,3);

if Ticks > avgVol + 2 * sdVol then SetPlotWidth(1,4);

SetPlotColor(2,white);

More 1 min. volume bar stuff . . . . .

here are some more volume patterns on the 1 min. SP..................can see two volume spikes to the downside at 11:56am CST & 12:35 pm CST. Both had divergence that ended in either a doji or a hammer pattern on the candlesticks.

Rolcol

Balanced Day

Thursday’s action in the SP built value at the top of Wednesday’s rally (value moved to price) and resulted in a balanced profile. This sets up breakout mode.

Though identifiable by the symmetrical shape of the profile, the degree of balance can be quantified using the Trade Facilitation factor - a ratio between the vertical and horizontal development during a trading day.

TFF = Total number of TPOs / Total number of price ticks.

A TFF of 1 indicates zero price control. (i.e. a vertical profile with only one TPO per price)

A TFF of 14 indicates total price control. (i.e. a horizontal profile with all 14 TPO’s at one price.)

Typically a TFF of 6 or above in day session Bonds or SP’s indicates that the market spent a lot of time in a narrow range and signifies a lack of other timeframe trader activity. i.e. the market is not facilitating trade and the area is likely to be rejected.

A TFF of less than 3 indicates a high degree of trade facilitation.

Thursday’s TFF was 6.13, Wednesday's was 2.95.

SRS

Here's a daily layout I use that has most of Linda's "tricks" coded in........................

Charts are done within the CQG platform but can be applied to most systems:

20-period candlestick format is base overlay in upper window
20 EMA - Thick Dark Blue line
5 SMA – Light Blue line
New 20-day Highs – candles are highlighted in Green
New 20-day lows – candles are highlighted in Red
WR7 – indicated by Red Arrow (below candles)
NR7 – indicated by Blue Arrow (below candles)
WR4 – indicated by Red Dot (below candles)
NR4 – indicated by Blue Dot (below candles)
Outside Day – indicated by Blue Triangle (above candles)
Inside Day – indicated by Red Triangle (above candles)
ROC – (window two) is 2-period ROC (green line) with 3/10 Slow line as an overlay (orange line)
LBRrsi – (window three) is Momentum Pinball indicator (3-period RSI of 1-period ROC)
ATR20 - (window four) is the daily ATR along with a 20sma overlay of the ATR

.......key points for today so far?............nr7 day, close > 5sma, 3 up on the daily ROC (so Taylor sell short?), doji candle (trend ending?), etc.

Rolcol

Fri Jan 18 final distribution of Volume: 61k contracts at 1329.00 is a ton

Potential Support for 15-min FC Buy Play

Potential Levels For Reversal

15 MIN - ABC CORRECTION - Vince

Here is the ABC up that Roalnd and I mentioned in OF - green up red down and green up -now we have to figure out when will C be completed

TS Code fro Roland's Volume Bars

Inputs: AverageLength(10);
vars: color(Green),sdvol(10), avgVol(0);
sdvol = standarddev(volume, AverageLength,2);
avgVol = average(volume, averagelength);
Plot1(Volume, "Vol");Plot2(avgVol, "Avg");
if open data1 > close data1 then
begin if volume > volume[1] then color = Red
else color = darkred;
end;
if open data1 < close data1 then
begin if volume > volume[1] then color = Green
else color = DarkGreen;
end;
SetPlotColor(1,color);SetPlotWidth(1,1);
if volume > avgVol then SetPlotWidth(1,2);
if volume > avgVol + sdVol then SetPlotWidth(1,3);
if volume > avgVol + 2 * sdVol then SetPlotWidth(1,4);
SetPlotColor(2,white);

{You'll notice this last part, I make the bars wider if they are greater than the m/a by a little, 1 SD or 2 SDs}

TS Version of Roland's Volume Bars

My Screen Layout...

Hi,

Attached is my screen layout in eSignal. I have 4 timeframes per instrument and me being predominently right hand person, i tend to have my main timeframe chart on upper right hand corner.
The 4 boxes indicate Breadth, Tick, Trin, VIX and Market Dashboard to identify leaders and laggards.
Any comments or suggestions to improve would be nice...

Mon Distribution

1 min. S&P with colorcoded volume bars

Here's an example of how I colorcoded the volume bars on my CQG layout:

Bright Green = low to high bar, volume greater than previous bar
Dark Green = low to high bar, volume less than previous bar
Bright Red = high to low bar, volume greater than previous bar
Dark Red = high to low bar, volume less than previous bar

Rolcol

Fridays High Volume Zones

Indian Market

Bonds - Overlapping value

Bonds have had 3-days of overlapping value. This short-term balance sets up breakout mode.

n.b. Bonds and Bunds had an inside day on Friday, whilst day session Five and Ten-Year Notes made higher highs.

SRS

expiration

Breakout day 3 - Trend Day

ES composite Market Profile showing the down auction that began on Jan 15th following the breakout from 7-Day balance

SRS

ES Neutral Day

On Wednesday the SP continued the downside breakout from the 7-Day balance, testing the cash swing low @ 1364 and producing overlapping lower value.

The action produced a Neutral Day, characterised by range extension (and tails) above and below the first hour’s range with little follow through. Neutral Day’s are indicative of higher timeframe trader uncertainty.

SRS

1385.00 Importance

posted by fchris

Tick Countdown EasyLanguage Code: Important Setting

//be sure you use "Tick Count" for volume//works for both tick and share charts
input: AlertTicks(10), HOffset(3), AlertText("tick"),AlertColor(magenta), NonAlertColor(magenta);
vars: txt(-1),TicksLeft(0),color(0);
if BarType = 0 thenbegin //initiate the text variable if BarNumber = 1 then txt = text_new(date,time,close," "); TicksLeft = BarInterval - ticks; {if OneAlert(TicksLeft <= AlertTicks) then alert(NumToStr(TicksLeft,0)+"-"+AlertText+" alert");} //text color changes with alert if TicksLeft > AlertTicks then color = NonAlertColor else color = AlertColor;
//reset at each tick text_SetLocation(txt,date,CalcTime(time,HOffset),close); text_SetString(txt,NumToStr(TicksLeft,0)+" " + AlertText); text_SetColor(txt,color);end;

3:45pm EST Volume Distribution

Dax - Wolfe Wave

Possible Wolfe Wave sell setting up in 5min Dax
SRS

Tuesday Jan 15 Profile Shape (Volume Distribution)

Breakout from balance

The SP broke out from balance overnight, rejected value, tested the swing low at 1385 and closed below the 1390 lower bracket limit.

After the first 90 minutes of the day session the market had difficulty moving lower, reflected by the b shape profile and the pronounced mode at 1393. (See ‘Noon look’)

The breakout from balance should signal the start of a new trend, however if Wednesday’s action lacks conviction / volume, the 1393 area can become a magnet.

SRS

(n.b. The SP broke from a 7-day balance, closed near its low and there was no buying tail. However, it should be pointed out that Dalton states that the b shape profile is generally caused by longs selling their inventory to longer-term buyers, rather than new shorts. Consistent shorting would have resulted in an elongated profile - a trend day.)

60-min Squeeze Set-Up (Holy Moley of Coils)

Noon look

From merrill lynch technical team:

Need 90% up day(s) as a sign of a bottom
We believe that before a low is in place we will need to get 90% upside days such
as we have seen in the major bottoms over the past two-years. Ninety percent
days generate strong buying or selling signals. Lowry’s Reports has been
studying supply/demand factors for decades. In 2002 Paul Desmond, president
of Lowry’s reports, wrote a paper, entitled “IDENTIFYING BEAR MARKET
BOTTOMS AND NEW BULL MARKETS,” which discussed the role of 90% up
days in identifying market bottom. He received the prestigious Charles H. Dow
Award from the Market Technicians Association. The definition for 90% up days is
points gained divided by the sum of points gained and points lost along with up
volume divided by the sum of up and down volume. Both ratios have to be in
excess of 90% to qualify. In order to create the chart below, we used NYSE
common stock breadth and NYSE composite upside and downside volume data.

1 Sentiment Gauge: Jan 14 2008

Overlapping Value

Chart 1: The price regression from Node 3 through Node 2 has so far led to 3-days of overlapping value. This sets up breakout mode. (Also identified by Monday’s NR7 and the low 30 and 60min ADX’s)


Chart 2: Combined profile for the 3 days of overlapping value


Chart 3: Yesterday’s range was entirely within the value area of the Dalton balance period, which exhibits a well-defined bell shaped distribution. Watch for a breakout from balance.

SRS

Trade Risk Sheet as of 12/29/2007

Here's the latest update of the sheet that I use to guage contract size per trade. For those that haven't seen this before, the main column to look at is the third from the left, "$/Contract Range". This is the daily contract range in dollars calculated by the 20sma of the ATR. Example: if you normally trade the YM (Dow minis, avergae range is $1071 per contact) and typically trade 2 contracts, the equivalent risk in something such as Silver (average range @ $2106 per contract) would be 1 contract. Hope you all find this useful.

Rolcol

ES - Market Profile Update

Chart 1: ES composite Market Profile update (previous post)

Thursday’s rally from Node 3 through Node 2 suggested the end of the immediate downtrend and the start of a bracketing process.

Rather than the nodes created by the run-pause of a trending market, a single distribution is indicative of a bracketed market. The small distribution from Thursday and Friday is still a work in progress.

(The bracket limits above and below Nodes 2 and 3 are 1436.25 and 1393)




Chart 2: ES 6-day bracket, as identified by Dalton / Liberman

A breakout beyond the bracket limits would signal the start of a possible trend. Obviously false breakouts beyond the bracket limits widen the bracket range.

SRS

Raj may be right or it may be a coil developing- questioning the 120 min grail sale target - Vince

3 pushes up for an A - abc down - red green red for a B ?? - now turning green for a possible C wave up or does it continue to just coil